These are the favorite picks of experts and bookmakers in Vegas to win the games of Week 5 of the 2023-2024 NFL Season.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (Sunday 9:30 AM)
Favorite: Buffalo
This match will be played in London. The Jaguars are in the second of straight weeks in London and are more accustomed to this time zone than the Bills.
The problem is that the Bills’ offense averages 5.9 yards per play (fourth-best in the NFL) while the Jaguars’ defense allows 5.4 yards per play (22nd worst in the league).
Bills quarterback Josh Allen had four touchdown passes last week, the tenth such game in his career. He is tied with Jim Kelly for the most in Bills franchise history.
Favorite: Baltimore
Despite suffering a bone contusion in his left knee against the Texans, Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett says he will be ready to play Sunday.
To all this, the Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete only 61% of passes and have recorded 15 sacks, the second most in the NFL.
Pickett hasn’t had a great start to the season and Baltimore’s defense will make things tougher for him.
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Favorite: Miami
The Giants rank last in pass attempt rate with one sack allowed at 17.2%. Nothing ideal to face Miami’s lethal offense.
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ranks first in yards per attempt on moving throws, quick throws under 2.5 seconds, and passes between numbers.
The Giants’ defense ranks 24th or worse in all of those areas this season.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Favorite: Tennessee
The Titans have won five straight meetings with the Colts and six of the last seven between the two clubs. The Colts’ last win in the series was on November 12, 2020.
In addition, the Colts have now lost seven consecutive home games, their last win at Lucas Oil Stadium was on October 16, 2022, against the Jaguars.
The good news for the Colts is that they will have the return of their star running back Jonathan Taylor.
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Favorite: Atlanta
Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown zero interceptions in his first 151 pass attempts, the third-most unintercepted pass attempts to start a career in NFL history (Dak Prescott, 176, and Tua Tagovailoa, 152).
Stroud will face Jessie Bates III, who has racked up three interceptions this season (tied for the most in the NFL).
It will be a confrontation between the most careful quarterback so far and the defensive player who has obtained the ball the most from his rivals.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Favorite: New England
The Patriots rank 30th in scoring average (13.8) and the Saints (15.5) are tied for 25th. It will be a duel between ineffective offenses.
A major problem for the Saints has been their offense in the red zone, which ranks last in the NFL with just four touchdowns in 12 trips.
The Patriots have the worst pass-blocking rate in the NFL (39.7%).
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Favorite: Detroit
The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season, but they will have to slow down a potent Lions offense to get it.
Detroit’s offense has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, tied for the longest streak in franchise history (1995).
Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has 22 receptions this season, third among rookies and third among tight ends.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:05 PM)
Favorite: Philadelphia
The Eagles have spent three consecutive games with 400 or more yards and have 13 games with at least 400 yards since the start of 2022.
Rams rookie Puka Nacua has 39 receptions for 501 yards this season (both are the most in four career games in NFL history). He needs one reception and 43 receiving yards for the most in five career games.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 PM)
Favorite: Cincinnati
The Cardinals have been pretty good against quarterbacks in the early halves this season.
They have kept Sam Howell, Daniel Jones, and Dak Prescott to just two combined touchdowns and two interceptions while catching all three eight times overall.
It is clear that Joe Burrow is not 100% and needs better protection if he wants to get back on track.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:25 PM)
Favorite: Denver
The Broncos are last, or nearly last, in every important statistical category defensively.
The Jets’ RB Breece Hall will be up against a defense that is allowing 176 rushing yards per game.
Experts give Denver the edge because the Jets rank last in third-chance conversion percentage (27%) to the offense this season, averaging the fewest plays per series (4.7) in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 4:25 PM)
Favorite: Kansas City
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has faced — and defeated — every opposing NFL team except the Vikings, who have been the most blitz team in the NFL this season at 55 percent.
Meanwhile, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has 11 touchdown passes this season, the most in the NFL. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season.
Minnesota’s problem has been turnovers. If they are not careful against KC, they will dig their own grave before Mahomes.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 8:20 PM)
Favorite: San Francisco
Dallas leads the league with 10 steals, while the Niners have just one steal on the season, tied with Dallas and Seattle for the fewest in the NFL.
San Francisco beat Dallas in the divisional round last season in part because it had a margin of plus -1 in turnovers.
Brock Purdy has set men’s coverage on fire, ranking in the top three in QBR, yards per attempt, and touchdown to interception ratio since entering the NFL last season.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers (Monday 8:15 PM)
Favorite: Las Vegas
Receiver Davante Adams against his former team. Adams needs a touchdown reception to surpass Antonio Brown (31) and Jimmy Graham (31) for the fourth-most touchdown receptions in prime-time games in NFL history, behind Hall of Famers Jerry Rice (46), Randy Moss (44) and Terrell Owens (34).
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown at least one touchdown pass in five career starts. He is the only Packers player to throw a touchdown in each of his first five starts since 1950.
