Let’s take a look at the top five Over / Under picks for Week 2 in the NFL.
Bettors who bet on overs last week were probably disappointed. Only five games went over the total in Week 1 and eleven games went under the total. Will that trend change this week?
So far it hasn’t, as the Chargers’ game against the Chiefs on TNF stayed under the total last night.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Best bet: Over 44 points
The Buccaneers (1-0) defeated the Cowboys (19-3) in Week 1 and stayed well under the total. They face NFC South rivals the Saints (1-0) in Week 2. The Saints defeated ATL (27-26) in Week 1.
Jameis Winston is banged up, but will likely be ready. He threw two TD passes to Michael Thomas and had no turnovers last week. The Saints also rushed for 151 yards and 1 TD despite Alvin Kamara’s struggles.
Tom Brady has tons of weapons, although Chris Godwin could miss this week’s game. Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Leonard Fournette are injured, but all are practicing today, so they should play.
The over is 4-1 in the last five H2H games played in New Orleans. Both teams should be able to go over 20+ points and the total for this game seems a little low considering the offensive talent level on both ends.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
Best bet: Under 40.5 points
This total opened at 43.5 points and would have been great to grab, but I still like the under at 40.5 points. The Steelers (1-0) host the Patriots (0-1) and neither team is likely to exceed 20 points.
Pittsburgh forced five turnovers against the Bengals, but that translated to just 23 points. They won’t force as many turnovers against NE and they’re going to have trouble moving the ball.
The Patriots scored 7 points against the Dolphins. Mac Jones doesn’t have a lot of weapons and he’s not a great QB either. The Pats also have a weak ground game and will struggle to score points all season.
The under is 4-0 in the Steelers’ last four home games. These two teams don’t play too often, but the under is 5-1 in the last six H2H meetings and 4-0 in the last four H2H games played in Pittsburgh.
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
Best bet: Under 48.5 points
The Commanders (1-0) defeated the Jags (28-22) in Week 1 thanks to a great performance by Carson Wentz. He threw for 4 TDs, but the ground attack was weak and that’s where Detroit has the most problems.
The Lions (0-1) lost to the Eagles (38-35) in a shootout. Washington has a much better defense than the Eagles, so they will be able to limit the Lions much better and the total for this game is too high.
The Commanders are also not a team that runs up the score very often. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 H2H meetings. The under is also 5-1 in the Commander’s last six games as a road favorite.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Best bet: Over 40 points
The 49ers (0-1) lost to the Bears (19-10) and Trey Lance struggled mightily. He needs to have a much stronger performance against the Seahawks (1-0) or he’ll be back on the bench soon.
Seattle defeated the Broncos (17-16) on MNF in Week 1. These two teams are division rivals and know each other very well. The last nine H2H games have had over 40 points scored.
Bookmakers have over-adjusted this total. It opened at 44.5 points, but now we’re hitting the 40-point line. I predict a bit of a shootout with both teams scoring 3+ TDs on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Best bet: Under 42 points.
This total opened at 52 points, but with Dak Prescott out, the total is down 10 points. These two teams are going to struggle to put points on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon.
Cooper Rush will start for Dallas and they will likely lean on the ground game. The offense only put up 3 points against TB, but the defense played well and limited the Bucs’ offense to just 19 points.
Joe Burrow will look to bounce back after throwing 4 INTs in week 1. I expect him to play more cautiously and we will probably also see the ground game be a priority. The clock will run often in this game.
The under is 6-0 in the Bengal’s last six games. Cincy is also off to a slow start and went under in their last four games played in September. The under is also 5-1 in the last six H2H meetings.
