As NFL betting gains greater acceptance and legalization across the country, access to futures betting presents one of the easiest ways to jump on a trend early for a return. With training camp set to begin and projected NFL win totals shifting as money comes in, here are some of our best NFL win totals bets for 2022 based on current predictions.
NFL win totals in 2022 before training camp.
The NFL free agency period caused a seismic shift in the NFL landscape. The league we saw last season is very different than the one we will soon see. Thanks to retirements, cancellations of retirements, trades, and signings, the balance of power has shifted in the NFL, as has the NFL DRAFT. The NFL Draft further helped change the odds, as holes in rosters were filled with some of the top prospects leaving college. However, it’s still a fairly balanced league, making every Sunday a tough task to pull off a win.
Our good friends at DraftKings Sports Betting have been crunching the numbers and have released their win total predictions for the 2022 NFL season. You’ll notice right off the bat that the 2022 NFL win totals look a little low. Last season, the Chiefs opened with the highest win total prediction at 12 games. This year, the Bills and Buccaneers lead the way at 11.5. Green Bay is only a half-game back at 11 despite opening at 11.5. This has more to do with parity in the league, which creates closer games and full rosters.
In addition, the AFC, especially the AFC West, is crowded. Not only are nine AFC teams listed with a 9.0+ win total prediction, but the AFC West will be a challenge, with the Chiefs (10.5), Broncos (10) and Chargers (10) all predicted to have double-digit wins. . In addition, the Raiders, now with Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, have 8.5 wins, the highest “bottom feeder” of any division in soccer.
Before we spoil all the fun, here are the current NFL 2022 win totals as listed by DraftKings Sportsbook. The numbers in parentheses reflect where the line was opened to show movement.
AFC Win Totals.
Buffalo Bills – 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs – 10.5
Los Angeles Chargers – 10
Denver Broncos – 10
Cincinnati Bengals – 10
Tennessee Titans – 9 (was 9.5)
Baltimore Ravens – 9.5
Indianapolis Colts – 10 (went 9.5)
Miami Dolphins – 9
New England Patriots – 8.5
las vegas raiders – 8.5
pittsburgh steelers – 7 (went 7.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars – 6.5
New York Jets – 5.5
Houston Texans – 4.5
DraftKings removed the Cleveland Browns’ win totals, likely in anticipation of a possible Deshaun Watson suspension. When initially released, the Browns opened with 9.5 wins.
NFC win totals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 11.5
Green Bay Packers – 11
Los Angeles Rams – 10.5
Dallas Cowboys – 10 (was 10.5)
San Francisco 49ers – 10
Arizona Cardinals – 8.5 (was 9)
Philadelphia Eagles – 9.5 (was 8.5)
Minnesota Vikings – 9
New Orleans Saints – 8
Washington Commanders – 8 (went 7.5)
New York Giants – 7
Detroit Lions – 6.5
Chicago Bears – 6.5
Carolina Panthers – 6.5 (was 6.0)
Seattle Seahawks – 5.5
atlanta falcons – 5
Best bets and predictions
Now that we have seen the 2022 NFL win totals, where is the value and who are the best bets to beat or fall short of your current win total predictions?
Chicago likely to struggle in 2022 for 6.5 wins
Looking at SOS, the Bears enter 2022 with one of the three easiest schedules. DraftKings has its projected win total at just 6.5, but that might even be too high. The likely No. 4 seed in the NFC North will struggle to find games in which they are favored this year. Even games against the Lions project to be difficult given the different trajectories of these teams.
Digging deeper, the Bears are favored in only two games, both at home against the Texans and Lions. Atlanta has listed as a pick ’em, and the only game with a three-point spread or less is a TNF game against Washington (-1.5) and Week 18 against the Vikings (-1.5).
It would be one thing if this was a team that struggled but made significant changes. But outside of coaching and personnel changes, they didn’t. Justin Fields is heading into year 2 with Darnell Mooney as his WR1, who I’m a fan of, but one player doesn’t make a team. In fact, the Bears have possibly the worst roster in the NFL. I’ll take the under on the Bears current win total.
It’s time to rethink how we view the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL. So much so that Mike Tomlin has yet to have a losing season after taking over as head coach in 2007. However, this is not the same thing Steelers fans have come to know and love.
Gone is Ben Roethlisberger, and in steps either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett. Honestly, either is probably an improvement over where Big Ben was at the end of his career. But both are unproven. The offensive line is still a mess and will struggle to maintain a clean pocket. Pittsburgh will again rely heavily on defense in 2022.
The Steelers’ schedule is also complicated. Pittsburgh will most likely be the third or fourth best team in its own division. Which one that is may depend on a possible Watson suspension. With six games against the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, Pittsburgh will be lucky to go 3-3. Things don’t get any easier. They have four games each against the AFC East and NFC South, plus the Raiders, Colts and Eagles.
Assuming the Steelers can get to .500 in the division, they need to find five wins against the Bills, Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons, Colts, Eagles and Raiders. I can find three wins against the Jets, Panthers and Falcons. I have a hard time finding the other two outside of maybe Miami. Yes, this is betting against history and betting against Tomlin. However, this could be a dismal season in Hein…I’m talking about Acrisure Field.
Watch out for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022
Philadelphia found its identity and got hot last season when it mattered. With a 6-2 record in their last eight games, the Eagles snuck into the playoffs with a 9-8 record. What did they do this offseason? They fully committed to Jalen Hurts and drafted some guys who could start in Week 1.
Jordan Davis is a mountain of a man and their next Fletcher Cox. Nakobe Dean could turn out to be a big steal as a current injury allowed him to slide into the third round (No. 83). They also added depth on the offensive line with center Cam Jurgens, whom Jason Kelce basically hand-picked. In free agency, they brought in LB Haason Reddick and WR Zach Pascal.
To top it off, the Eagles pulled off a blockbuster move on draft day by trading and signing AJ Brown from the Titans to a four-year contract. This gives Hurts three legitimate targets in Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, plus Pascal, who comes from Indianapolis. Add in one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and there are very few holes on this depth chart.
While 9.5 wins certainly isn’t a low number, the NFC as a whole is weaker in 2022. They have two games against Washington and the Giants, plus matchups against the Bears, Lions, Texans, Jaguars, and Steelers. The Eagles, barring injuries, arguably have a better chance of winning the NFC East outright than going under their current win total projections.
Bettors are all over the Eagles this season; 90% of the ticket and 96% of the money is on the line for the Eagles, who have increased their win total forecast from 8.5 to the current 9.5.
No team has repeated as NFC East champion since the Eagles won four in a row from 2001-2004. With Dallas winning last year, it will come back to the Eagles in 2022 as the kings of the East.
Are the Detroit Lions ready to surprise some teams in 2022?
First of all, I can’t wait to see Dan Campbell in Hard Knocks. The number of slogans that will be placed on the jerseys will be ridiculous, and I could buy every single one of them. This is a team in transition, and while not ready to compete in 2022, no kneecap will be safe. Just look at the way they finished last season. After the bye week (Week 9), when Campbell took over calling the plays, the Lions finished 3-5-1. From Weeks 13-18, they were .500 at 3-3.
In 2022, the Lions have the No. 28 schedule in terms of wins/losses against opponents, and their opponents have a cumulative record of 135-154 (.467) from last season. For their non-divisional games, the Lions also have the Commanders, Jaguars and Russell Wilson-less Seahawks at home, along with away games against the Jets, Giants and Panthers.
Add in two games against the Bears, who I believe finished fourth in the NFC North this year, and the Lions win total prediction of 6.5 could be low. It may sound crazy, but I’m taking the Lions as one of my best bets.