The NFL MVP award has become synonymous with the league’s best quarterback over the past decade. The nine previous MVP award winners played as QB, with Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson as the last non-QB to win the award in 2012. As such, it’s no surprise that QBs like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes have had the shortest preseason. odds of winning the 2022 NFL MVP.
During the first week of the season, the top 15 players in the 2022 MVP odds are all quarterbacks. It is becoming increasingly difficult for bookmakers and the betting public to defend that a non-QB wins the prize. There are some decent candidates who aren’t sleeper/remote-chance quarterbacks (Justin Jefferson, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey), but their money is almost always better spent on a call signal.
When Peterson won the award in 2012, he had 2,097 rushing yards on 348 carries and 12 touchdowns. That year, Peterson beat Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. As you can see, for a non-QB to win league MVP, he has to do something incredible. Peterson was also the last winner to be on a team that didn’t finish first or second in their conference. Clearly, winning can trump statistics in this QB-dominated era.
Last season, there was a small chance that someone other than quarterback would have won the award, as Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor had outstanding seasons for their respective teams. Kupp finished third in the voting behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers after winning the league’s triple crown by a reception with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Taylor didn’t finish in the top three of the voting, but he had an outstanding season for a running back with 2,171 total yards and 20 total TDs on 372 touches, but it still wasn’t enough to smell the trophy.
Looking ahead to Week 15, Jalen Hurts has overtaken Patrick Mahomes in the race for MVP and is now the favorite in betting (-165). Hurts had another stellar performance in last week’s crushing win over the Giants. The third-year Eagles quarterback recorded 294 total offensive yards and three total touchdowns. Since Week 8, the 24-year-old has scored 20 touchdowns in total and has only thrown one interception. He has played flawless football and is one of the reasons the Eagles have the best record in the NFL (12-1). Hurts will look to add to his MVP bid Sunday against Justin Fields and the Bears.
With Hurts now the favorite to win the MVP, Mahomes has the second-best odds (+200), which could be good news for bettors who have been waiting for a good number to bet on the Chiefs’ superstar quarterback. In last week’s win over the Broncos, Mahomes completed 28 of 42 passes for 352 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. It was the first time this season that the former league MVP threw more than two interceptions in a game. However, he threw for over 300 yards for the eighth time this season, which is incredible. Mahomes currently leads the NFL in air yards (4,165) and touchdown passes (33) and will look to improve his MVP odds Sunday against the humble Texans.
Finally, Joe Burrow saw his MVP odds improve again (+700) after leading the Bengals to their fifth straight win last week against the Browns. The third-year quarterback defeated Cleveland for the first time in his career when he threw for 239 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Burrow is still considered a long shot to win the NFL MVP, especially with the way Hurts and Mahomes have played this season. However, with four games remaining in the regular season, anything is possible.
Below, we’ll provide a snapshot of where the MVP odds are and who provides the most value heading into Week 14.