Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 Record Prediction: Odds, Props, and Picks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back as Super Bowl favorites after Tom Brady returned for 2022. Let’s examine the Buccaneers’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing wagers involving the franchise and their odds to win the NFC South, NFC and Super Bowl in 2023.

All odds are from Caesars Bookmakers unless otherwise noted and are correct as of Aug. 23 at 2:15 p. m. ET.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 record prediction.

Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars provided odds and spreads for 13 of the Buccaneers’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, Tampa Bay is projected as the favorite in 12 games and pushed in one. If their season matches those predictions, the Buccaneers will have a 12-0-1 record after Week 14 of the 2022 campaign.

It’s safe to say that the Buccaneers are expected to be a powerhouse with that solid predicted record. Because just as the Buccaneers reloaded the second-ranked scoring offense and fifth-ranked scoring defense this offseason, this team has some key concerns to overcome.


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They lost head coach Bruce Arians and tight end Rob Gronkowski, and are dealing with critical injuries to Ryan Jensen, Tristan Wirfs and Aaron Steenie. Wide receiver Chris Godwin also must prove he is 100 percent healthy following an ACL tear.

Promoting Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to head coach may prove to be the right move, as there will be less of a culture clash. And adding receivers Julio Jones and Russell Gage will help with some of those concerns. Trading for guard Shaq Mason was a brilliant steal. Brady, at 45, will always make the most of the talent around him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds, predictions and props.

Now we know the sportsbook predictions for the Buccaneers week by week. Let’s take a look at their win total odds for the entire season, division, conference and Super Bowl.

Buccaneers win total: 11.5 (over +110, under -130).
NFC South winner: -250
NFC winner: +330
Super Bowl winner: +750
With Brady delaying retirement and returning to the Buccaneers, this season is all about winning the Super Bowl. This is probably his last hurrah. That doesn’t mean we can project a certain fervor that will carry franchises over the top each week, but Tampa may fight harder for the No. 1 seed as the season progresses.

This is a high-octane team that nearly advanced to the Super Bowl last season. They likely would have won it all had they not collapsed late against the Los Angeles Rams. Betting on the Bucs is not a bad choice, but the roster rotation creates some areas of both opportunity and concern.

If Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Mike Edwards and any tight end break down, the Buccaneers will quickly regain their full potential. The concern would be if an impact quarterback doesn’t step up, can the defense survive against the league’s best offenses?

Otherwise, the Buccaneers are rightly favored within the NFC and NFC South. The New Orleans Saints are a sleeping giant based on how well Jameis Winston plays, but their win line is several games behind the Buccaneers for good reason. Having a big question mark at quarterback is never a good thing.

MVP odds and player props.

For a team as good as Tampa Bay, we don’t have many player props from the Bucs beyond Tom Brady’s MVP odds. Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette are excellent starters, but they haven’t produced at a level commensurate with a major award. None of their top defenders are on the Hall of Fame level of Aaron Donald or Myles Garrett, for example.

However, this does not discourage us. As always, we’ve found several seasonal props worth playing. Let’s dive into the best ones below.

most valuable player
Tom Brady +850
Tom Brady’s regular season air yards.
Over/Under 4,600.5 (over +100, under -120).
Mike Evans’s regular season receiving yards
Over/Under 1,025.5 (over +105, under -135)
Devin White regular season tackles
Over/Under 126.5 (-115)
Unfortunately, we’re missing odds on Fournette’s ground totals, which is a huge bummer. Fournette had a monster performance in 2021 and again should have a big workload. Look for a play on his total yards or ground yards to be available, and he’ll likely want to take over.

Otherwise, it’s awfully tempting to go over every single one of the other Buccaneers’ prop plays.

Brady is an excellent bet to win the MVP. He has everything it takes to get there. The narrative is set for his final season; he’s incredibly productive and the team will win a lot of games. While the value of betting on Brady isn’t ideal, it’s a solid enough play for everyone to enjoy the action.

Evans is coming off a season with 74 receptions for 1,035 yards and 14 touchdowns. He hasn’t been under 1,000 yards in his career, although he has gone under that total twice. Bettors are betting against his health or that Brady will favor Evans with Godwin out.

2022 picks.
The Buccaneers have the 27th toughest strength of schedule entering the season. However, despite what the numbers say, they have a tough schedule. Key games against Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, the Rams, Cleveland and Cincinnati will not be easy.

How they fare in games against other Super Bowl contenders will shape their outlook. Dropping home games against the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, Rams or Bengals would hurt them. Ultimately, though, I have faith in Tampa Bay to get 12 wins in a weakened NFC that has no real favorite without big question marks.

The rest of the NFC is boring. The only two teams I see that have a chance against the Buccaneers in the playoffs are the Rams and Eagles. The rest lack plays on both sides of the ball to slow down what will be an incredibly efficient and potent offense.

But I don’t like the Bucs’ Super Bowl comeback. They could win, of course, but this roster is weaker than the best teams in the AFC. Maybe they’ll get lucky and face this year’s version of Cincinnati, but that’s not worth betting on today.

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